Scenario planning and analysis

Identifies, drives, plans, and analyses scenarios as a matrix of uncertainties and complexities, using strategic management tools.



Competency Area

Managing Risks


Aware of types of scenario planning

Understands the history and role of scenario planning and analysis

Lists types of scenario planning (quantitative, operational, normative, strategic, etc.)

Demonstrates the essence of project risk management in scenario planning, as a process and matrix of uncertainties and complexities

Scopes for target issues that can influence a scenario

Supports scenario planning by scoping target issues and brainstorming drivers and factors that influence the scenario

Aware of strategic management tools (PESTEL analysis, CAGE analysis, SWOT assessment, etc.)

Distinguishes between scenarios and forecasts with a focus on uncertainties, complexities, and risks

Applies strategic management tool to scenarios

Contributes to scenario planning by identifying uncertainties and distinguishing them from trends

Applies strategic management tools to scenarios to eliminate over and under predictions for the future

Develops scenario plans by identifying driving forces, critical uncertainties, plausible scenarios, and their implications

Analyses implications for each scenario

Identifies early indicators that differentiate one scenario from another

Evaluates scenario logics through two critical uncertainties, using a 2-by-2 matrix

Analyses strategic implications for each scenario, including needed variations, success factors, and contingency plans

Sustains and optimises scenario plans

Presents advantages and disadvantages of scenario planning and analysis to relevant stakeholders

Secures commitment from all stakeholders on key issues that need to be addressed and evaluated

Adapts scenario plan, analysis, and related strategy to changing assumptions

Sustains scenario plans by optimising on the right data, technology, and human resources