Scenario planning and analysis
Identifies, drives, plans, and analyses scenarios as a matrix of uncertainties and complexities, using strategic management tools.
Type
Functional
Competency Area
Managing Risks
Levels
Aware of types of scenario planning
Understands the history and role of scenario planning and analysis
Lists types of scenario planning (quantitative, operational, normative, strategic, etc.)
Demonstrates the essence of project risk management in scenario planning, as a process and matrix of uncertainties and complexities
Scopes for target issues that can influence a scenario
Supports scenario planning by scoping target issues and brainstorming drivers and factors that influence the scenario
Aware of strategic management tools (PESTEL analysis, CAGE analysis, SWOT assessment, etc.)
Distinguishes between scenarios and forecasts with a focus on uncertainties, complexities, and risks
Applies strategic management tool to scenarios
Contributes to scenario planning by identifying uncertainties and distinguishing them from trends
Applies strategic management tools to scenarios to eliminate over and under predictions for the future
Develops scenario plans by identifying driving forces, critical uncertainties, plausible scenarios, and their implications
Analyses implications for each scenario
Identifies early indicators that differentiate one scenario from another
Evaluates scenario logics through two critical uncertainties, using a 2-by-2 matrix
Analyses strategic implications for each scenario, including needed variations, success factors, and contingency plans
Sustains and optimises scenario plans
Presents advantages and disadvantages of scenario planning and analysis to relevant stakeholders
Secures commitment from all stakeholders on key issues that need to be addressed and evaluated
Adapts scenario plan, analysis, and related strategy to changing assumptions
Sustains scenario plans by optimising on the right data, technology, and human resources